Economist 的真知灼見

這本是Economist在2009年底的年度回顧和展望特刊.

有一章關於全球各地區的經濟簡評, 對於香港的評論是這樣的:

While mainland China forges ahead, this former British outpost will struggle with the economic ills of the developed world, emerging from the 2009 recession to only tepid growth. The mainland's strong performance will help, but the world trade in goods on which Hong Kong's economy depends will remain depressed.

To watch : Ballotproof. The pro-democracy protests held every year could be particularly loud in 2010. The souring economy has undermined support for the chief executive, Donald Tsang, and the mainland-dominated system behind him.

其實香港的經濟, 民生, 政治體制早被國外政評家看穿. 我們將反高鐵, 五區公投作為民主覺醒, 「80後」領導新學運潮, 然後沾沾自喜. 其實一切都是外在經濟環境下的因果循環, 而我們也只是用力實踐經濟原則所預視了的結果. 放開眼睛看看世界, 其實很多香港正面對的問題, 其他地方不是己經歷過, 就是正在經歷.

再來看看這篇文章:

Delayed explosion
Will 2010 be a year of social unrest?

Over the past year much of the world has experienced falling incomes and sharply rising unemployment . At the height of the global economic crisis in early 2009 a striking warning about the possible political consequences came from America's director of national intelligence...

So far, however, the feared spread of unrest has not occurred. Voters have not flocked to the far left or the populist right. Most people affected by the crisis have suffered in silence.

Does this mean that all the warnings were misplaced? It's too soon to relax. There are reasons to expect that 2010 could be a year of upheaval. The relative social peace of 2009 may have been only the quiet before the storm.

Indeed, a congruence of calamities could prove politically tempestuous: a sharp rise in unemployment, increased poverty and inequality, weakened middle classes and high food prices in many countries...

Historically, political reactions to economic distress have tended to come with a lag. The same is true of labour-market developments: even once the recession ends, unemployment continues to rise. According to Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) estimates, in 2010 there will be 60m more unemployed worldwide than in 2008...

Declines in incomes are not always followed by political instability. Vulnerability to unrest depends on a host of factors. These include the degree of income inequality, the state of governance, levels of social provision, ethnic tensions, public trust in institutions, the history of unrest and the type of political system ("intermediate" regimes that are neither consolidated democracies nor autocracies seem the most vulnerable)...

怎麼這篇文章好像為香港而寫的? 尤其是最後一段. 當然, 我們總能夠事過境遷後找舊文章出來事後孔明, 可是我讀過的其他文章不是無膽作預測, 就是作些模稜兩可黑白不分的預測, 沒有一篇能作明確斷言, 所以我對economist的文章印象特別深刻.

我想說的只是, 當我們面對一個問題, 如果將目光局限在這問題所屬的區域內, 問題就會被微觀化, 並且放大到佔據了整個思想空間, 而無法從不同角度不同距離觀察問題, 也不能將這問題和那問題和他山之石作比較而獲得啟發.

當然我們很難期望有這樣優秀的經濟學者在香港出現, 更不可能出現在政府裡, 但至少, 每週買一本來看看是最基本能做到的吧!